How to Build a Reference Class for Your Project
When managing projects or small phases within a project, building a reference class can be a game-changer. In this blog, we’ll explore what a reference class is, how to construct one, and why it’s critical for creating accurate production plans that save time, reduce costs, and ensure successful project execution.
What Is a Reference Class?
A reference class is a collection of data from multiple past projects that provides key insights—such as budget and schedule performance—to help predict outcomes for current or future projects. By analyzing this historical information, we can avoid overly optimistic assumptions and develop a realistic understanding of project timelines and costs.
Human nature often leads us to believe, “This will go fine.” However, reality proves otherwise. A reference class helps ground our expectations in data, not wishful thinking, providing a foundation for sound planning.
Why Build a Reference Class?
Recently, a team I worked with created a reference class for an owner’s move-in process during a facility transition. The owner sought to reduce downtime and costs by understanding how long such processes typically take. The team researched examples of similar owner move-ins and aggregated the durations, costs, and roadblocks.
The result? A data-driven average duration and cost estimate that provided a realistic basis for planning.
Steps to Build a Reference Class:
Research Historical Data:
Gather examples of similar projects or phases. For instance, when researching owner move-ins, our team identified details such as:
- The type of building.
- Mobilization processes.
- Common roadblocks or constraints.
- Durations and outcomes.
Aggregate and Analyze:
Compile as many examples as possible. While 50 examples are ideal, even 7–10 can yield valuable insights. Calculate averages for timelines and costs.
Integrate with Your Production Plan:
Use the data to inform your production plan. For example, create a timeline, swim lanes, and sequence that reflect the historical data. By relying on the reference class, you shift from guesswork to certainty.
Collaborate with Stakeholders:
Share the plan with owners and trade partners to refine and align the plan with everyone’s expectations.
From Data to Action
Once the reference class is integrated into the production plan, the result is a clear, actionable roadmap. It’s no longer a guess but a plan backed by historical evidence. This ensures that durations, sequences, and deliverables align with real-world precedents.
Applying Reference Classes to New Projects
When faced with unknowns, especially on new construction projects, don’t rely on assumptions. Instead:
- Research similar projects to create a reference class.
- Use historical data to predict how long activities will take and how much they’ll cost.
- Collaborate with owners and trade partners to refine the plan.
By grounding your plans in data, you can establish a solid schedule and budget that’s achievable.
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-Takt Virtual Training: (Click here)
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-The Takt Book: (Click here)
Discover Jason’s Expertise:
Meet Jason Schroeder, the driving force behind Elevate Construction IST. As the company’s owner and principal consultant, he’s dedicated to taking construction to new heights. With a wealth of industry experience, he’s crafted the Field Engineer Boot Camp and Superintendent Boot Camp – intensive training programs engineered to cultivate top-tier leaders capable of steering their teams towards success. Jason’s vision? To expand his training initiatives across the nation, empowering construction firms to soar to unprecedented levels of excellence.
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